I posted this on FB today, as a message to my conservative buddies who think Obama is dead in the water.
Begin:
So what happened last night? And where do we go from here?
A few observations:
I'm most curious about the tea-party invasion on the Right. On the one hand, tea-party inspired candidates made huge gains in the House; however, they fell short in big Senate races that should have been taken in the wave. That tells me tea-partiers are strongest in gerrymandered / localized House districts, but still don't carry enough appeal to win consistently in statewide races (Senate contests are statewide). In Delaware, Colorado (apparently), and Nevada, tea-party candidates fell short, when all of those seats were ripe for the taking.
In my view, Republicans are mistaken if they take the results to mean there's an ideological mandate to lurch the country rightward. The vote yesterday was not FOR Republicans (who still poll very poorly in popularity surveys); it was a vote against the current malaise -- especially the slow pace of economic recovery. And typical Americans aren't anti-government; they're pro EFFECTIVE government.
If Republicans overplay their hand, it could backfire the way it did after ‘94. They played hardball with Bill Clinton, which led to the government shutdown. But once the economy started steaming ahead, voters sided with Clinton in that ordeal – and he trounced Bob Dole in ’96. Even when the Republican brand was popular (the Contract with America was coherent), they couldn't overtake Clinton. Today it’s not popular, so they get cocky at their own risk, imo.
But alas, John Boehner is already drawing a line in the sand, saying there will be no compromise with the president. Hopefully, that’s hyperbole more than an actual prescription. But if it’s not, we need to ask this question: is that what independent voters signed up for yesterday when they decided this thing? My sense is that they want cooperation and compromise – and above all, a pragmatic approach to solving problems.
Back to the tea-party victors, I also wonder if a civil war is about to erupt on the Republican side. I saw last night that several candidates put mainstream Republicans on notice, saying that the established guys are on "probation." That tells me tea-partiers will balk at say, expanding the debt ceiling – and they’ll be calling for some pretty harsh cuts. Such moves will create challenges for establishment Republicans. So what happens? Maybe a split and the creation of a third party? Many of my conservative friends preferred that in the first place, so look out for a fascinating power struggle.
Although my side of the spectrum fared poorly overall, there are some good stories out there we can all get behind. For example, Nikki Haley is the country's first woman governor of Indian descent. She's also the first woman governor of South Carolina. I won’t be agreeing with her much, but on some level we can all appreciate a compelling candidate breaking through a barrier.
Anybody trying to make predictions now about 2012 is pretty much a dope, imo. Two years is an eternity in national politics. Obama will be just fine, provided the economy picks up. Even now, amid the losses, his approval is around 45-50%, higher than Reagan's at this point in his first term. And maybe, just maybe, the two sides will find some common ground to make the next two years all about jobs, and not gridlock.